The report follows a significant incident in 2022 when Russia hacked Viasat's satellite-internet equipment before invading Ukraine, disrupting communications and preventing a coordinated response. This event marked the first "space war" where both sides used space systems for military operations.
The project addresses gaps in space cybersecurity discussions, which often consider only a few generic scenarios like satellite hacking or signal jamming. With the ICARUS matrix-short for "Imagining Cyberattacks to Anticipate Risks Unique to Space"-over 4 million unique scenarios can be generated to consider a broader range of threats.
Hackers are already thinking very creatively, and our project applies structure to the dark art of anticipating those cyber threats-a method to the madness. This helps defenders to avoid tunnel-vision and stay ahead of would-be attackers, explained Patrick Lin, the project's principal investigator and director of the Ethics + Emerging Sciences Group. He also serves on the National Space Council's Users' Advisory Group.
Unlike other taxonomies of cyber vulnerabilities, the ICARUS matrix captures the diversity of threat actors, their motivations, their victims, and the space capabilities affected. These elements help establish the core aspects of a full scenario-answering the who, what, where, when, why, and how questions.
The report offers an initial list of 42 novel but plausible scenarios to stimulate researchers' thinking. They range from the near-term to the distant future, including scenarios about:
- Insider threats - AI vulnerabilities - False-flag attacks - Eco-terrorism - Ransomware during a launch - Faked evidence of ET life - Hacked 3D printers creating built-to-fail parts - Asteroid mining - Martian settlements - Space pirates
To solve a problem, it is crucial to understand it. The report explores seven contributing factors driving space cyberattacks, including:
- The new space race - Remoteness of outer space - Space debris and sustainability - Complexity of space systems - Lack of clarity in both cyber and space law - Economic and political advantages of cyberattacks - High stakes involved in space security
For example, the common threat of space debris suggests that cyberattacks, rather than kinetic conflicts, would dominate space conflicts since all space assets are equally vulnerable to debris collisions.
The full report is available at https://spacecybersecurity.org. Other Cal Poly co-authors include Keith Abney, Bruce DeBruhl, Kira Abercromby, Henry Danielson, and Ryan Jenkins, with expertise in technology ethics, military ethics, aerospace engineering, and cybersecurity.
ABOUT ETHICS + EMERGING SCIENCES GROUP
Based at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo, the Ethics + Emerging Sciences Group is a non-partisan think tank focused on risk, ethics, and social concerns related to new sciences and technologies, especially in frontiers and security and defense applications.
Related Links
Space Cyber Security
Cyberwar - Internet Security News - Systems and Policy Issues
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