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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing index at six-month high but strains remain
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) June 1, 2015


China new home prices increase in May: survey
Beijing (AFP) June 1, 2015 - China's new home prices increased in May for the first time in four months, a survey showed Monday, as effects of Beijing's loosening policies to boost the market kick in.

The average price of a new home in China's 100 major cities rose 0.5 percent month on month to 10,569 yuan ($1,696) per square metre, the China Index Academy (CIA) said in a report.

Prices had been falling since February and the increase was stronger than a 0.21-percent gain in January, which came after eight straight months of declines.

"Looking ahead the property market overall shows a warming trend, but some cities still see inventory pressures and the supply and demand is still tense," the CIA said in the statement.

China's property market has been in the doldrums for more than a year as expansion in the world's second-largest economy slows.

Authorities have taken steps to support the industry as real estate investment remains a key driver for the economy, while land sales are a major source of revenue for cash-strapped local governments.

The central People's Bank of China (PBoC) has cut benchmark interest rates three times since November, and eased mortgage policies in September.

In late March it lowered minimum downpayment levels on second homes nationwide, rolling back a four-year-old policy first introduced to rein in soaring prices that were making home ownership unaffordable for many and raising worries over social unrest.

It also shortened the ownership period during which sellers are liable to a 20-percent capital gains tax on properties other than their main home.

China's economy grew 7.4 percent last year, the weakest rate in nearly a quarter of a century, and more recent indicators have pointed to the frailty extending into the current quarter.

The PBoC has reduced the percentage of funds banks must hold in reserve twice this year, in a bid to boost lending, and analysts broadly expect policymakers to announce further easing in the coming months.

On a year-on-year basis house prices fell 3.73 percent in May, compared with a decline of 4.46 percent in April, according to the CIA.

The average price in China's top 10 cities was 19,148 yuan per square metre, down 2.33 percent from a year ago, it said, slowing from a fall of 3.46 percent last month.

China's official manufacturing index hit a six-month high in May but the industry still faces multiple strains, the government said Monday, while a closely watched private survey pointed to continued deterioration as the world's second-largest economy battles a broad slowdown.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 50.2 for May, the strongest since 50.3 in November and the third consecutive month of expansion.

The index, which tracks activity in factories and workshops, is seen as a key barometer of the country's economic health. A figure above 50 signals growth, while anything below indicates contraction.

Despite the improvement in the headline figure, Zhao Qinghe, a senior analyst with the NBS, cautioned that it remained at a "relatively low level" and that industry is still "under rather big downward pressures".

"The survey result showed that companies are still beset with strapped finances, insufficient market demand and rising labour costs," Zhao said in a separate statement released by the NBS.

Sub-indexes covering production and new orders both expanded, while those for employment and raw material inventory remained below the break-even point, according to the NBS.

A separate survey by British banking giant HSBC was more pessimistic, with its final PMI reading standing at 49.2 in May for the third straight month of contraction.

Compared with the official reading, the HSBC survey uses a smaller sample.

According to the survey, production contracted for the first time in 2015 partly due to a fall in new export work, which was the sharpest in two years, according to the bank's statement.

"The headline PMI signalled a further deterioration in the health of China's manufacturing sector in May," said Annabel Fiddes, an economist at Markit, the information services provider that compiles the index, said in the statement.

Softening demand, falling output, sustained job cuts, ongoing destocking activities and reduced purchasing activity all suggest that the sector may "remain in contractionary territory as we head into mid-year", she said.

"More stimulus measures may be required to help boost domestic demand and recover some growth momentum," she added.

China's gross domestic product expanded 7.4 percent last year, the slowest since 1990. Growth weakened further to 7.0 percent in the January-March period, the worst quarterly result in six years.

The frailty looks to have extended into the current second quarter after indicators for April such as trade and industrial output came in weaker than expected.

Authorities have taken a series of steps to stimulate the economy, including three interest rate cuts since November and two reductions in the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve, in a bid to boost lending.


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