Coal plant conversion seen boosting China nuclear share to 22 percent by 2060

by Riko Seibo
Tokyo, Japan (SPX) Jan 19, 2026

China could lift nuclear power to about 22 percent of its electricity supply by 2060 by repowering retired coal fired plants with nuclear reactors, according to a new systems analysis of coal to nuclear conversion. The study, led by researchers at Tsinghua University and published in the journal Engineering, evaluates how converting coal sites to host new nuclear capacity, particularly small modular reactors, can support long term power sector decarbonization while easing the transition for coal regions.

The research team upgraded a national power system capacity expansion and operation model with provincial level detail to test how coal to nuclear conversion might work across China. By expanding the representation of nuclear technologies and adding constraints specific to converting coal plants, they assessed both the technical feasibility and economic impacts of this pathway under China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Model results indicate that if inland nuclear development proceeds, China's installed nuclear capacity could reach about 422 gigawatts by 2060, supplying roughly 18 percent of national electricity demand even without dedicated coal to nuclear policies. The team then constructed three scenarios to quantify how repowering eligible retired coal units would change nuclear capacity, its regional deployment pattern and overall power system costs.

Scenario analysis shows that systematically converting suitable coal plants unlocks additional growth in nuclear generation. Repowering eligible sites increases nuclear capacity by about 13 to 23 percent relative to a case without coal to nuclear conversion, raising nuclear's share of total electricity supply by 2 to 4 percentage points by 2060. In the highest conversion case, nuclear power reaches around 22 percent of China's electricity mix by mid century.

The analysis finds that this extra nuclear capacity does not undermine grid reliability. Across the scenarios, the system maintains a mix dominated by non fossil sources while keeping renewable curtailment below about 7 percent, indicating that wind and solar output can be integrated without excessive waste. Coal to nuclear conversion especially favors small modular reactor deployment in northwestern provinces with large existing coal fleets, allowing those regions to shift from fossil generation while continuing to host major power infrastructure.

By relying on existing coal plant locations, infrastructure and grid connections, the conversion strategy also enables nuclear projects to spread into more parts of the country. The study reports that, when combined with conventional greenfield nuclear development, coal to nuclear projects could expand nuclear deployment to 28 provincial regions by 2060. This broader siting pattern supports both regional energy security and a more geographically balanced low carbon transition.

The authors conclude that coal to nuclear conversion is cost effective at the system level. Between 2030 and 2060, they estimate that two coal to nuclear development scenarios deliver cumulative power system cost savings of about 0.22 to 0.69 percent, equivalent to roughly 0.44 to 1.39 trillion Chinese yuan, compared with a pathway that excludes conversion. Savings come from avoiding some greenfield nuclear investments and from lower operating costs as flexible small modular reactors displace fossil fuel generation.

The analysis highlights several mechanisms behind these economic gains. Using existing coal plant sites reduces the need for new land acquisition and supporting infrastructure, while reusing grid connections and some auxiliary facilities shortens project timelines. In system operation, small modular reactors installed at former coal sites provide flexible, low carbon generation that can respond to demand changes and complement variable renewables, which in turn cuts fuel use and operating expenses at remaining fossil units.

Beyond the modeling results, the study outlines policy steps that could enable coal to nuclear conversion to contribute to China's decarbonization objectives. The authors recommend protecting limited coastal and inland greenfield nuclear sites for projects that cannot use coal locations, while promoting early coal to nuclear pilot projects with supportive regulatory frameworks and financing. They also argue for expanding manufacturing capacity for key nuclear components and continuing research and development on advanced reactor designs to reduce costs and enhance operational flexibility.

According to the authors, these measures would help manage the social and economic aspects of the coal transition by repurposing existing assets rather than simply retiring them. Repowering coal stations with nuclear units can limit stranded asset risks, maintain local employment associated with power infrastructure and support regional tax bases, while simultaneously cutting carbon emissions. For countries that rely heavily on coal generation, the study suggests that coal to nuclear conversion offers one pathway to reconcile climate goals with economic and grid stability concerns.

The work, titled "Role of Coal-to-Nuclear Conversion in China's Electricity System Decarbonization," was carried out by researchers including Daiwei Li, Hongyu Zhang, Ying Zhou, Sheng Zhou, Siyue Guo, Junling Huang and Xiliang Zhang. The study received support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the China Carbon Neutrality Initiative of Tsinghua University, and is available as an open access article in Engineering.

Research Report: Role of Coal-to-Nuclear Conversion in China's Electricity System Decarbonization