Output is set to be up three percent at 232 million hectolitres, based on preliminary figures from 29 countries accounting for 85 percent of global production, according to the intergovernmental organisation.
"Yet output remains well below recent averages, confirming a period of persistently reduced global supply, impacted by climatic challenges and evolving consumption models," the OIV said.
Production has been hit by environmental extremes such as above average rainfall in some key regions and droughts in others, even as worldwide consumption fell last year to the lowest level in more than 60 years, with sales of 214.2 million hectolitres.
Europe saw a two percent output increase to 140 million hectolitres, but remained below its multi-year average.
"Production -- though marginally higher than in 2024 -- was still below average, constrained by France's small harvest, Spain's persistent drought, and adverse weather conditions in Portugal and Germany," the agency said.
In the Southern Hemisphere, production dropped 10 percent in Chile, its fourth straight year of declines, but jumped 11 percent in Australia.
Overall, "the 2025 climatic pattern underscores the increasing variability between and within" the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, "with favourable conditions in some areas insufficient to offset weather-related losses elsewhere."
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