However, according to the new study, current projections for deploying these technologies are overly optimistic. The findings indicate that, while it might be possible to store up to 16 gigatonnes of CO2 underground annually by 2050, achieving this target would necessitate an unprecedented expansion in storage capacity, a scenario that is unlikely given the current pace of investment and development.
The UK Government's ambitions to establish the country as a leader in clean energy and carbon capture and storage further underscore the need for realistic targets. The study highlights the importance of aligning such initiatives with achievable goals for CO2 storage.
Researchers from Imperial's Department of Earth Science and Engineering developed models considering factors like suitable geology, technical constraints, and economic limits. While these models show that reducing CO2 emissions on a massive scale is possible, the pathway and contributions from key regions may differ from current projections, including those in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Yuting Zhang, the study's lead author, commented: "There are many factors at play in these projections, including the speed at which reservoirs can be filled, as well as other geological, geographical, economic, technological, and political issues. However, more accurate models like the ones we have developed will help us understand how uncertainty in storage capacity, variations in institutional capacity across regions, and limitations to development might affect climate plans and targets set by policymakers."
Dr. Samuel Krevor, a co-author from the same department, added: "Although storing between six to 16 gigatonnes of CO2 per year to tackle climate change is technically possible, these high projections are much more uncertain than lower ones. This is because there are no existing plans from governments or international agreements to support such a large-scale effort. However, it's important to keep in mind that five gigatonnes of carbon going into the ground is still a major contribution to climate change mitigation."
The study also critiques IPCC reports for using integrated assessment models (IAMs) that may overestimate the potential for underground CO2 storage, particularly in Asian countries like China, Indonesia, and South Korea. These models assume deployment rates that are currently unrealistic, casting doubt on the feasibility of existing projections.
Professor Christopher Jackson, another co-author, pointed out: "While integrated assessment models play an important role in helping climate policymakers make decisions, some of the assumptions they make when it comes to storing large amounts of carbon underground appear unrealistic."
The research team suggests a more achievable global benchmark of 5-6 gigatonnes of CO2 storage per year by 2050, based on growth patterns observed in industries like mining and renewable energy. Their modeling approach, grounded in real-world data, provides a more reliable framework for setting long-term CO2 storage targets, offering a valuable tool for policymakers.
Dr. Krevor concluded: "Our study is the first to apply growth patterns from established industries to CO2 storage. Existing predictions rely on speculative assumptions, but by using historical data and trends from other sectors within the industry, our new model offers a more realistic and practical approach for predicting how quickly carbon storage can be scaled up - helping us set more attainable targets."
Research Report:The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century
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