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WAR REPORT
Row over arms for Syrian opposition splits EU
by Staff Writers
Brussels (UPI) May 31, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

EU governments are increasingly split as British-French pressure grows for a stepped up supply of weapons to the Syrian opposition to help it topple President Bashar Assad.

At issue is not Assad's rule or his government's human rights excesses, which have made his presidency illegal by default. Europeans are worried an arms bridge to Syria will not be enough to crush the combined might of Assad's military and Russian and Iranian benefactors.

Assad hinted in a Lebanese al-Manar television interview Russian S-300 or its variant S-300PMU-2 surface-to-air missiles were part of a deal Russia continues to honor. His assertion triggered speculation the missiles already might be in Syria.

Asked about the delivery of the missiles pledged by Russia, Assad told the interviewer, "All the agreements with Russia will be honored and some already have been recently."

Analysts said the presence of new missiles, while seen in Damascus as a deterrent to opposition forces against Assad, could also hasten European consensus on arming the opposition.

European diplomats, joined by the United States, have been urging Moscow not to send any more weapons. However, critics of EU plans to arm the opposition say the European initiative makes Russian acquiescence less likely unless there's a clear change of heart in Moscow about letting Assad go.

Even less manageable is a likely increase in arms flow from Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah. Neither is likely to heed any European requests to hold off on weapons transfers to Syria while the European Union attempts to reach greater agreement on the arms issue.

British-French support for a selective lifting of an existing arms embargo to benefit "moderate" Syrian opposition groups has won little support in the rest of the European Union but that may change. Critics argue the European Union cannot afford the largess financially and that arms aid could escalate the conflict, exposing Europe to more terrorist retaliation and civil strife as polarization in European communities grows. Supporters say stepped up arms supplies will hasten Assad's fall and help install a new administration.

Some critics also see the British-French campaign as a red herring because Syrian opposition groups are already being backed with arms and money by pro-NATO Arab nations including Qatar and Saudi Arabia and NATO member Turkey.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who met German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in Washington, said increased Russian weapons shipments would have a "profoundly negative impact" and put Israel's security at risk. The entry of Hezbollah and reported infiltration of rebel ranks by al-Qaida has raised the specter of a wider war enveloping Israel, Lebanon, Turkey and even Iraq.

Current fighting in Qusair, near the Lebanese border, has involved Hezbollah fighting beside Assad loyalists with arms supplied through Iranian sources, including those in Iraq.

The S-300PMU-2, if deployed, will make it tougher for EU-backed forces to implement a no-fly-zone over Syria similar to the NATO action over Libya before the fall of Moammar Gadhafi in October 2011.

Kerry warned Russia not to upset the balance in the region by providing new weaponry to Assad. Russian-inspired commentaries counter the European Union's arms bridge to Syria would do exactly that.

Syria has said it will "in principle" attend future peace talks, set to be held in Geneva in June. Most EU states still look to the talks as the best option, but continuing mayhem on the ground in Syria and British-French pronouncements in favor of partially lifting the embargo are also having an effect on European public opinion.

Analysts said if the European Union's ability to sway opinion on hugely unpopular financial rescues of troubled member states was any indication, European pubic support for an all out military option in Syria could not be ruled out.

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