Researchers at the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and Department of Mathematical Sciences issued the warning Tuesday, in the scientific journal Nature Communications, about the vital ocean currents, which distribute heat, cold and precipitation between the tropics and the northern Atlantic region.
The scientists used ocean temperature data from the last 150 years and calculated the ocean current, known as Thermohaline Circulation or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
"Using new and improved statistical tools, we've made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation is most likely to occur, something we had not been able to do before," explained Prof. Susanne Ditlevsen of UCPH's Department of Mathematical Sciences.
Through their calculations, researchers found the Atlantic Ocean's current will likely shut down in 34 years, around 2057, if current emissions persist. The result would be a warmer tropics combined with a much stormier North Atlantic region.
"Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth's climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally," said Prof. Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute.
"While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions," Ditlevsen added.
"Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible."
The findings contradict the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which found a change in ocean currents was "very unlikely" during this century.
The last time ocean circulation collapsed was during the last ice age. During those events, climate change was extreme with 10- to 15-degree swings over a decade. Currently, climate change is warming at a rate of 1.5 degrees over a century.
Related Links
Beyond the Ice Age
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
