The Arab League's surprise suspension of Syria marks a dramatic shift for an organization widely seen as a toothless talking shop and indicates an equally dramatic hardening of the regional mood as President Bashar al-Assad goes on slaughtering his own people.

The league's unexpectedly tough action tightened Syria's isolation, but whether that will herald the fall of Assad's beleaguered regime in Damascus is far from clear.

But what is becoming evident is Assad's Alawite-minority regime, installed by his father, Hafez al-Assad, in a 1970 coup, is being backed into a corner by fellow Arabs.

They fear a sectarian war will erupt in Sunni-majority Syria that could spread. Possibly more importantly, they also want to block the eastward thrust into the Levant by an expansionist Shiite Iran, Syria's main ally.

On Nov. 14, King Abdullah of Jordan became the first Arab ruler to call for Assad to step down, a further sign of the Damascus regime's alienation in an Arab world convulsed since the start of the year by pro-democracy uprisings that have toppled the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

The 22-member league has invited Syrian opposition groups to its Cairo headquarters to discuss a common vision for a transitional phase in Syria.

By all accounts, the move has stirred fears in Damascus that this could mean official recognition for the broad-based Syrian National Council.

The league set a precedent in that regard by recognizing the Libyan National Transitional Council while Col. Moammar Gadhafi was still in power.

"Everyone acknowledges that the fear is a repeat of the Libyan scenario, where the Arab League's March decision to abandon Gadhafi was crucial to paving the way for a U.N. resolution and eventual NATO action," observed Ian Black, Middle East editor of The Guardian newspaper in London.

"Most observers acknowledge that a repeat of this is highly unlikely. So while it remains impossible to predict how the bloody Syrian chapter of the Arab Spring will end, it's a better bet than before that Assad will not be running things in Damascus when that moment comes."

Arab League Secretary-General Nabil el-Araby says he wants to coordinate with the United Nations to find ways to end the bloodshed in Syria.

Previous efforts by the United States and some European states to enlist the Security Council failed because of Chinese and Russian opposition. But an approach by the Arab League could overcome that and produce coordinated international pressure on Damascus.

The Arab League's strategy strongly suggests Arab leaders no longer expect Assad, who took power in 2000 after the death of his strongman father, to survive the uprising that erupted March 15.

By U.N. estimate, 3,500 people have been killed in the regime's horrendous crackdown that shows no sign of ending.

Indeed, there are signs that defections from the military are increasing. A renegade army officer, Col. Riyad al-Asaad has established a Free Syrian Army in neighboring Turkey, increasingly critical of Damascus.

The FSA claims to have 20,000 men, but that's likely an exaggeration. It's poorly armed and has no operating base -- yet. Turkey's a candidate.

Right now, the FSA isn't a significant threat to the regime, with its hardcore Alawites controlling the Republican Guard and the elite 4th Armored Division, the army's Special Forces, the intelligence apparatus and a small army of Alawite gunmen who hunt down dissents and their families with the ruthlessness of men who know they've nowhere to go if the regime falls.

Opposition sources reported a group of military defectors attacked an air force intelligence facility in a Damascus suburb Wednesday with rocket-propelled grenades and machineguns.

If that's true, it would be the first time defectors have hit Syria's all-pervasive security apparatus head-on.

But the reported attack should not be taken out of proportion or as a signal the military is finally cracking and turning on the regime.

There simply are no visible signs that's happening or that opposition forces are showing any indication of being able to mount a coordinated nationwide insurgency.

A collapsing economy, partly the result of U.N. sanctions, is more likely to drive the Sunni-dominated business community to abandon the regime it has supported throughout the bloodletting.

That would be a critical step that could critically weaken the regime.