There has been speculation that the ailing 77-year-old may step down from the position of commander-in-chief of Myanmar's "Tatmadaw" armed forces and hand over power to a younger generation of trusted lieutenants.

But even if he does, few expect the military -- or its "senior general" -- to hand over the real power to a genuine civilian government any time soon in what is one of the world's oldest dictatorships.

"Than Shwe was trained in psychological warfare and is very skilful at divide and rule and manipulation," said Benedict Rogers, author of "Than Shwe: Unmasking Burma's Tyrant".

"He has stayed in power by requiring the same total loyalty that he showed his superiors, and by manipulating his rivals," he told AFP.

"There is little doubt that he will retain power in some form after the elections, even if it is not in a formal position."

The reclusive leader -- said to be a keen Manchester United fan -- is not running as a candidate in the poll, but if the junta-backed parties win, as expected, he could become president by parliamentary selection.

The military strongman knows the risks of retiring only too well, having put his predecessor, the late dictator Ne Win, under house arrest in 2002 after his family members were convicted of plotting to overthrow the regime.

Than Shwe is famous for his reliance on soothsayers and reportedly gave government workers just hours to move from Yangon to the half-built new capital Naypyidaw in 2006 as the timing had been ordained by astrologers.

Unlike the leaders of some other pariah states, Myanmar's senior general does not rely on cult of personality to prop up his regime.

But what he lacks in charisma he has made up for with brute force -- crushing uprisings, silencing dissent and locking up political prisoners, among them opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, his arch enemy.

Mark Canning, the former British ambassador to Myanmar who has met the junta chief several times, has described him as "small, plump, slow moving and physically unimposing.

"He projects no obvious sense of menace or intimidation. He's far from the image of a fire-breathing demagogue," Canning says.

"He gives every impression of being what he in fact is -- someone who has manoeuvred himself from lowly beginnings to the top of the military pile, with guile, intrigue and, where necessary, force."

Born in 1933 in a small town near Mandalay, Than Shwe enlisted in the army aged 20 as Myanmar, also known as Burma, emerged from colonial rule.

His first combat experience came as a young second lieutenant fighting separatist rebels, before being posted to a roving psychological warfare unit and rising swiftly through the ranks.

The military seized control of the country post-independence in a 1962 coup.

Than Shwe took the helm in 1992 after previous dictator Ne Win stepped down in the wake of a failed 1988 student-led uprising.

Myanmar's armed forces are believed to have doubled in size over the past two decades with an estimated 350,000 to 400,000 personnel and experts say its position of strength means it is unlikely to leave the political scene.

"The Tatmadaw is not going to simply give up government and return to the barracks," said professor Andrew Selth, an expert on Myanmar's military with Australia's Griffith University.

"The military government could be in power, in one guise or another, for many years to come," he added.

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